Michael Rosenthal

(2/2021) There are seventy-five countries in the Paris Climate Accord, which has been in place for five years. The aim of the agreement is to decrease global warming described in its Article 2, "enhancing the implementation" of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) through:

(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 EC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 EC above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;

(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;

(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.

This strategy involved energy and climate policy including the so-called 20/20/20 targets, namely the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 20%, the increase of renewable energy's market share to 20%, and a 20% increase in energy efficiency.

Countries furthermore aim to reach "global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible". The agreement has been described as an incentive for and driver of fossil fuel divestment.

The Paris deal is the world's first comprehensive climate agreement.

We have not been a participant during the Trump administration. Here are some of the accomplishments thus far. Britain has vowed to stop funding fossil fuel projects abroad. The European Union will push to cut emissions by 55 percent by 2030. Canada plans to increase its tax on carbon to more than $130 per ton. A group of smaller countries has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2035. Three dozen nations have declared that they have a "climate emergency".

But here is some good news. President-elect Biden vowed to rejoin the accord, and become a world leader in climate action. He said "I’ll immediately start working with my counterparts around the world to do all that we possibly can, including convening the leaders of major economies for a climate summit within my first 100 days in office." Biden promised to put the United States on the path to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The previous non-participation came from the withdrawal from participation by President Trump, insisting that participation could lead to economic disadvantage. An earlier global climate treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, was signed during President Clinton’s administration, but it was not ratified under President George W. Bush. In short, the United States has backed away from a potential leadership role in climate protection.

Biden can make impact on climate protection to some extent through executive order, but real success will depend upon support in the United States Congress.

A recent article in the Washington Post has provided some interesting insights on the Climate Agreement.

President Trump said in 2017 that the United States has serious legal liability if the United States stayed in the agreement. Actually, the agreement is voluntary and not legally binding. Under United States law, the Paris Accord is an executive agreement, not a treaty, and thus does not require Senate ratification.

Though China is in the Paris Accord, the United States is a distant second to China’s emissions. China produces 28% of the overall emissions, and its emissions are still growing. China talks big, saying that its goal was net zero emissions by 2060, but it is making virtually no progress toward achieving that goal.

Though new technologies will help achieve these goals, there are barriers to easy implementation. Large increases in wind and solar energy sources will require new technologies such as more efficient and affordable electricity storage for times when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow. Also of concern is availability of raw materials for batteries, and nuclear power expansion faces hurdles involving cost, safety, and social acceptance.

The belief of some is that cutting carbon dioxide emission is the key to reducing climate impact. Of course that is important. CO2 production causes about 2/3 of the warming, but there are other compounds to worry about. Reducing methane, black soot, and hydrofluorocarbons is also important in minimizing climate impact. What is so special about CO2 however is that it stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years.

Making a real impact on climate change will thus require the efforts and cooperation of many countries, and success will take many years. But we need a good beginning, with the participation of many countries and the leadership of the United States. President Biden has expressed willingness to bring the United States back into the program and to become a leader in this critically important effort.

The change in the presidency will bring a very different set of attitudes toward environmental issues. One of the changes enacted in the last four years is a significant reduction in wildlife protection. Conservationists look forward to a more aggressive attitude in the next administration to protection of wildlife. The Trump administration has allowed importation of carcasses of endangered elephants and rhinoceros, and of lions as hunting trophies.

This policy endangers the long-term survival of these species as expressed in the Endangered Species Act. A United Nations panel determined that 1 million species face extinction. Three billion birds have vanished in North America in the past 50 years! President Biden has a good track record in supporting conservation. He has an 83 percent lifetime score with the League of Conservation Voters dating to 1973. The climate change threat further weakens preservationist efforts, so this issue is especially important now.

The current administration reclassified the species between endangered and threatened, moving more than 100 species to threatened. For example, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently granted a permit that allows firms to harass polar bears during searches for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. There are many more examples of the weakening of animal protection, for example in Alaska to promote business interests and to support hunters, which provide major revenue in the state. Protecting wildlife is important, and so is a view of the long-term impact on the environment which these current legal policies and climate change have on animal survival.

Finally, here is a lighter ending (at least for me) for the month. The Washington Post reports that psychics are having a wonderful time! They are working on the phone and offering readings. Featured in this article is a psychic who owns a shop on Dupont Circle in Washington. I strongly suggest you track down the article from January 1, and you can make your own judgment whether this is Real Science or not.

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