A new year, predictions, & resolutions

Shannon Bohrer

"Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors,
and let every new year find you a better man" - Benjamin Franklin

(1/2023) Every new year we experience a few traditions that seem embedded in our culture. One of the rituals include predictions for the new year from experts, at least people that espouse they are an expert. We also conduct a brief history lesson, reviewing the previous year. Then, on an individual level, we create our new year's resolutions to be healthier, kinder, and basically a better person. These traditions, along with others, like eating pork on New Year’s Eve for good luck in the coming year, are repeated every year. Do we ever measure our luck, become a better person, or even stop repeating the unpleasant events of our past? Maybe we should question these traditions.

The predictions from the "experts "often include movements in the stock market, interest rates, savings and growth, bond prices, and mortgage rates. My impression is that the majority of these predictions are often economic issues, which have more value to the business community. Since the business community does affect us, what we pay for products, maybe we should pay more attention.

The predictions also include the weather for the coming year. These predictions have evolved, with the issues of global warming being more noticeable and prominent in recent years. The weather predictions, with the global warming issues, often include the cost of floods, storms, and droughts, which affects crops, transportation, and numerous economic issues. Telling people how much money they should expect to make in the markets, then telling them how much they will lose because of hurricanes and tornadoes, seems more like a warning than a prediction. Of course, to worry about predictions one has to believe, at least in some way, that the predictions will come to fruition. For some people, believing in global warming is not easy since, in today’s world, science seems to be questioned.

The experts also review the previous year telling us what we already know or should have known. It is like a long re-run of major events, most of which never affect us unless it is a major weather disaster. Another perspective of the review is like a cliff notes version of a year’s history. This segment also includes major films, plays, and movies, most of which I never saw or attended. I would think that most of us would remember wars, pandemics, and natural disasters. Then again, maybe the history of horrific events is becoming so normal that we unconsciously ignore the reporting. I believe this to be true with active shooter incidents. That is a tragedy in itself that there are so many and that we frequently tune them out.

Another tradition is the review of celebrities who died during the year. The celebrities or well-known persons that passed seem important to the news organizations. They often begin with "People we have lost this past year." I believe the word "lost" is just preferable to died. I have noticed as I have matured a little that some of the celebrities that died are unknown to me. This is somewhat related to the fact that each year many of celebrities are younger than me. I guess there are just fewer celebrities that I remember, or maybe many of them that I knew in my younger years have already passed.

Strange as it may seem we rarely hear anything from the experts about their predictions from previous years. Of course, an argument could be made that the last several years were unpredictable. Some of my predictions from last year were fairly accurate. One of my predictions was that the political divisiveness would continue. Some predictions are obvious. Another obvious prediction is the political parties blaming the other party for any problems we have, which is a prediction you can always count on, especially in election years.

My prediction for 2023, which is also repeated from 2022, is that some politicians will call for modifying, changing, and or eliminating Social Security, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act. Those predictions are also becoming more dependable. It does not matter that the recipients of all of these programs – pay for them. Nor does it matter that all three programs work and are well-liked. The recommendations will be made, out of habit, because habits are hard to change, and we don’t want to become socialist.

Addressing my new year’s resolutions for the last several years, I have sometimes repeated myself. My resolutions always include keeping a cheerful outlook and only complaining when necessary. That is easy to maintain, provided I decide on the necessary part. As one grows older, the choice of resolutions diminishes. It is hard to get better, be in better shape or be a better person in your seventies. I like to think I have tried to be healthier, kinder, and a good person most of my life.

As to more current predictions, we will probably see more gun violence and active shooter incidents in the coming year. Because of a Supreme Court Decision that allows individuals, with or without cause, to carry concealed firearms, we have more people carrying guns in public. In 2019, it was reported that "Nearly 6 million Americans were toting loaded handguns on a daily basis." That number had doubled in just four years and has probably doubled again since the Supreme Court decision. Prior to the Supreme Court Decision twenty-five states issued carry permits with no cause needed. Many of these states have no background checks or training requirements. No one should be surprised that we continue to experience more active shooter incidents.

In summary, the coming year's weather will be extreme and costly; however, any losses may be offset if you have market funds, proving the predictions are correct. Our politics will continue to be divisive, and there will be an increase in active shooter incidents. Since I believe in science, Covid 19 will still be here. Covid could become one of those obvious predictions for each year. The resolutions we make to improve ourselves will have good intentions, but most of us will not change.

"Good resolutions are simply checks that men draw on a bank where they have no account." —Oscar Wilde

Happy New Year