The economy, facts, myths & reality

Shannon Bohrer

(7/2024) The age of divisiveness, party loyalty over country, and alternative facts can be confusing. When one feels or accepts that diversity may have some predictability, one is reminded of the unexpected depth of abnormality. Watching a reputable morning news program (they do exist), a well-known economist used charts to explain a wide range of current beliefs. The first bewildering fact was that fifty-one percent of Americans, according to a recent poll by the Harris Guardian, believe America is in a recession. A similar survey reported that fifty-six percent believe America is in a recession. However, it is a fact that our economy is not just thriving; it is one of the best economies in the developed world.

Four years ago, many experts believed we would have a recession, but it never occurred. According to the New York Times and other reputable organizations, our economy is booming. It has also been widely reported that the United States is one of the best economies in the world. Unemployment is at a fifty-year low, the stock market is at an all-time high, and workers’ wages are exceeding inflation. The United States, compared to the other G-7 countries, "Has the highest gross domestic product growth over the last three years while also seeing inflation come down faster than most of the other wealthy countries."

If the recession predicted did not occur, why do people believe we are in a recession? Of course, a similar question could be asked about numerous topics. There is not just a diversity of thoughts and beliefs in our society but also a diversity of news outlets, which could help to explain the divisions of our perceptions and beliefs. Mark Twain once said, "If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you read the newspaper, your misinformed." So, which half is uninformed or misinformed?

While partisan news outlets generally report facts and figures that confirm their beliefs, or the beliefs of their readers, reporting or even indicating that we are in a recession could reflect Mark Twain’s words of being "…misinformed." According to an Axios Vibes survey by the Harris Poll, sixty-three percent of Americans believe their financial situation is "good." In those numbers, nineteen percent reveal their financial situation as "very good." And yet, over half of those polled believe we are in a recession. Simultaneously, an Axios Vibes survey by the Harris Poll found that "Americans overall have a surprising degree of satisfaction with their economic situation."

Television reporters and news pundits like to say that very often, public surveys reflect the past and present but not the future. With that logic, people responding to the polls may be thinking of the predicted recession. However, polls taken early in 2024 indicated that the majority believed that 2024 would be better than 2023. In that same poll, eighty-five percent felt they could improve their financial situation in 2024. The polls reflect similar estimates from the Wall Street Journal, predicting "growth in both GDP and real wages for the rest of the year."

How can so much polling and optimism about our financial situation and future be interpreted as a recession? When explaining the differences the pundits often reflect on those that have been left behind, individuals and families that have difficulties meeting their basic needs. Food prices, the increases in cost of gasoline and housing expense have all gone up. Those categories are often mentioned when explaining how people feel about the economy.

Food companies and the fossil fuel industries are making record profits, which should not surprise anyone. While salaries have increased, in many areas, the increases have not kept up with the cost of living, especially rent. Yet, in another poll, seventy-seven percent of Americans like where they live, including renters. However, renters tend to see their financial situation as poor more often than homeowners. The rising cost of renting is considered a large factor, yet sixty-three percent of renters have no interest in homeownership. If one has trouble paying the rent because of increases, saving for a down payment to purchase a home may not be a consideration.

A logical yet seemingly illogical view is that the polling on our economy is reflective of people who can hold two ideas with opposing views as both true. Two things can be true at the same time, but when the two things seem to contradict each other, how can both be true? With the diversity of news available today, it is possible to shop for the news that fits one’s beliefs and ignore facts that dispute one’s beliefs. However, in this case, each side of the economic polling disputes the other side.

Unusual or strange beliefs, and thought processes, have always existed. So, maybe we should not be surprised when two opposing views are both held. The problem for many of us may be our belief in logic as a foundation of our beliefs. It seems illogical for so many people that believe they are economically well off to also believe we are in a recession. Conversely, when examining the issue, does logic hinder one’s ability to see both sides of a problem?

According to H.L. Menchen, "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong."

Recently, the World Bank estimated "the global economy will expand 2.6 percent" this year. The World Bank also said the U.S. economy in "Impressive" and is leading the world growth. Accordingly, the Bank also said, "the global economy is in better shape than it was at the start of the year, thanks largely to the performance of the United States." That’s us.

If we have two opposing views on our economy that contradict one another, what other views do we have that, from a logical point of view, seem illogical? Addressing that question is the diversity we read and hear about every day. For too many of us, the differences are illogical, and trying to use logic to understand the differences has yet to work. Reflecting on Mark Twain’s quote, is it possible that in general people are either uniformed or misinformed?

"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics." - Thomas Sowell.

In a convoluted way, that makes sense.